Trump and Kamala were head to head but now Trump has opened a 10 point lead according to a new election model made by The Daily Mail. The model, which analyzes the latest polling data, historical election trends, and key economic indicators, calculates the likelihood of each candidate winning the electoral college in November.
While it still predicts Harris is more likely to win the popular vote—giving her 50.8 percent support and a 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes—it shows Trump gaining an edge where it matters most: in the key battleground states.
With the pivotal Blue Wall states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—trending toward Trump, the model gives him a 55.2 percent chance of securing the White House, compared to Harris’ 44.6 percent. There’s only a slim possibility of an electoral tie.
To break it down, the model runs multiple scenarios for every state, accounting for different outcomes. On average, Trump comes out on top 55.2 percent of the time—a four-point increase since earlier in the week and a nine-point rise since his post-debate low.
This suggests the race will be a close one, despite the dramatic events of recent months, including President Joe Biden stepping aside and Harris taking his place on the ticket, as well as Trump surviving two assassination attempts.
Callum Hunter, a data scientist at J.L. Partners, noted that while there’s still time before Election Day, the momentum appears to be shifting.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” Hunter explained. “September saw her gain ground after the debate and changes in ballot access, but now things are reverting to where they were at the beginning of the month. If this trend continues, we could see Trump solidify his lead over the next few weeks. September may have been Harris’ peak, and it seems that high point is now over.”
Despite Trump taking the lead in the electoral college model, Harris remains the favorite to win the popular vote. She enjoyed a surge in fundraising and polling numbers after officially joining the race, and by many accounts, she outperformed Trump in their recent debate.
However, the election model suggests that her lead in the popular vote is offset by Trump’s strength in key states that will determine the final outcome. For example, Trump’s chances of winning Pennsylvania have climbed to 58 percent, up from 50 percent following the debate. Although his lead in Pennsylvania is less than one percentage point—about 27,000 voters—if the state flips to Trump, it virtually guarantees his victory in the electoral college.
Other polling data also shows Trump gaining ground. A recent Quinnipiac national poll put him one point ahead, and a New York Times/Siena poll gave him the lead in the crucial Sun Belt states of Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.
For now, it appears Trump has more pathways to victory than Harris, though the race remains tight.