The liberal media is heavily promoting Kamala Harris, aligning with Democrats’ efforts to generate enthusiasm for her addition to the 2024 race.
However, liberal pollster Nate Silver is skeptical and maintains that Trump remains the favorite to win in November.
This perspective contrasts sharply with the dominant narrative in much of the media.
The New York Post reported:
Trump Remains the Favorite in 2024 Presidential Race Despite Harris’ Rise: Nate Silver
Despite Democrats’ dramatic move to revitalize their presidential ticket, renowned election analyst Nate Silver still considers former President Donald Trump the favorite.
Silver’s election forecast model gives Trump a 61.3% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris stands at 38.1%.
Previously, Silver had given Trump a 65.7% chance of victory over President Biden in his model rollout last month.
In his latest assessment, Silver included various polling averages showing Trump with slight advantages nationally and in most battleground states, though not in Wisconsin, where Harris leads.
FiveThirtyEight, one of the few election forecasts to previously project Biden as more likely to win the 2024 presidential election, has also updated its projections.
Jazz Shaw of Hot Air commented on this:
“So Nate Silver sees Donald Trump’s chance of victory having dropped from 65.7% to 61.3%. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has risen from the mid-30s to 38.1%. That’s still a significant margin. While it’s not impossible for this analysis to be wrong, historical accuracy suggests Nate rarely misses by such a wide margin.
Silver is frequently cited on CNN as much as on Fox News, making him the gold standard of election analysis. He bases his forecasts on data, not his political preferences.
We’ll soon know if he is right.”