Ever since the Democrats made the switch from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris, the media has been trying to present this as a normal and highly anticipated move. However, it’s not typical, and any surge in Harris’s support is likely a short-lived boost that will diminish as voters recall her record and personality.
James Piereson, a political scholar and analyst at the Manhattan Institute, recently wrote a column comparing Kamala Harris to the failed 1988 presidential candidate Michael Dukakis. One of the most interesting parts of his column is his prediction for the 2024 election.
Piereson writes in The New Criterion:
“Kamala Harris is now enjoying this kind of moment as she racks up endorsements in anticipation of the Democratic National Convention in August. Democrats and media allies are busy portraying her as a fresh face (she is not) and a youthful candidate (also doubtful) who will electrify the nation, galvanize women and minority voters, and trounce Donald Trump in the fall campaign…
The honeymoon will not last very long. Trump will succeed in painting Harris as an out-of-touch San Francisco leftist, much as Bush portrayed Dukakis as a Massachusetts liberal. Trump will find plenty of running room with that campaign, as there is hardly a left-wing cause that she has not embraced…
Notwithstanding the euphoria today, Trump will win the election by six points—forty-nine to forty-three percent—winning 339 electoral votes, including all of the so-called swing states, plus the Democratic-leaning states of Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. Republicans will pick up three or four seats in the Senate and perhaps twenty seats in the House, giving them safe majorities in both chambers. This will give Trump the margins he needs to implement a good piece of his agenda in 2025 and 2026.”
This column is currently one of the most read articles on Real Clear Politics, and for good reasons. Piereson makes some compelling points based on history and research.